Cooling below the binding energy is not enough
Typical misconceptionDeuterium forms as soon as the temperature drops below its binding energy of 2.2 MeV.
Better mental modelPhotons outnumber baryons by more than a billion to one. The high-energy tail of the photon distribution keeps breaking deuterons until the temperature is about thirty times lower.
More baryons do not mean more deuterium
Typical misconceptionA denser universe should make more of every element.
Better mental modelHelium rises only slightly with density, while deuterium falls steeply because denser matter burns it into helium-3 and helium-4 faster. The sparse-baryon preset leaves about six times more deuterium than our universe.
The lithium curve is a prediction, not a fit
Typical misconceptionThe model is tuned so that every element matches observation.
Better mental modelOnly the baryon density and the radiation are inputs, and they are fixed independently by the cosmic microwave background. With them, helium and deuterium agree with observation, but lithium-7 comes out about three times higher than in old halo stars. That gap is still unexplained.