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Sandbox Physics
From planet catalogs to populations

AC24 · L4

Read the evidence for the radius valley

Open Fulton et al. 2017, arXiv 1703.10375v2, Figure 7 beside Ho et al. 2024, arXiv 2401.12378v2, Figures 4–8. You will learn to separate a selected radius distribution, a comparison with atmospheric-loss models and a claim about planetary systems. Zhu et al. 2018, arXiv 1802.09526v2, Equation 3 supplies the last distinction.

Identify the population before following the dip

Start by writing a small source card: stellar parent, planet cuts, parameter measurements, and the quantity on each axis. A curve cannot be interpreted separately from the objects allowed into it.

The CKS paper uses a filtered stellar population and planet sample. Its impact-parameter cut enters its geometric correction. Ho and colleagues use a selected, precisely characterized short-cadence planet sample for the host-mass comparison. Neither parent is the earlier-Gaia K-star intersection used in our DR25 exercise.

The word valley refers to fewer planets between two radius concentrations, not a forbidden radius. Keep that ordinary meaning in mind when comparing a smooth curve with finite observed counts.

Reading: The California-Kepler Survey III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets · Shallower radius valley around low-mass hosts

Figure 7 compares an observed catalog with a weighted distribution

In Fulton et al., follow the dotted uncorrected radius histogram and the completeness-corrected histogram in the upper panel. The horizontal coordinate is planet radius; the sample has periods below one hundred days. The shaded small-radius part has low completeness and is excluded from the spline fit in the lower panel.

Read the radius-error scale before judging how sharp the minimum is. The lower-panel curves involve a fitted distribution and measurement smearing. Appendix C checks the correction procedure using simulated surveys. Those checks belong to that sample and its detection model.

A concrete detail makes the need for matching cuts clear: the paper uses 0.7R⋆/a0.7R_\star/a for its geometric probability because it excludes detections with b>0.7b>0.7. Copying that probability into a catalog that accepts a different range of impact parameters would change the question.

Reading: The California-Kepler Survey III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets

Remove a known slope before comparing host groups

Ho et al. Figure 4 separates host-mass groups in period-radius space. Equation 1 describes a valley position that depends on period and stellar mass. Figure 5 shifts planets to an equivalent radius at ten days and normalizes the sub-Neptune peak. Its vertical scale is a relative density, not planets per searched star.

Read the peak-to-valley contrast definitions in Equations 4–6 before interpreting Figure 6. A larger contrast means a deeper relative minimum. The binning, reference slope and normalization are part of that comparison.

For your own histogram, perform the coordinate change before adding radii from different periods. Otherwise a sloping narrow feature can spread into a shallow broad one. This is the same reason that a diagonal streak in a photograph looks wider when projected onto one horizontal axis.

Reading: Shallower radius valley around low-mass hosts

Track measured radii across the model cells

In Figure 8, grey model planets and coloured observations have different origins. Section 3.3 adjusts weights outside the valley and propagates radius errors between cells, then predicts the valley occupancy. Follow that operation through Equations 9–16. The comparison tests the specified model and weighting procedure.

You can understand migration without running an escape model. Put one hundred known planets below a sharp radius boundary. If each has a twenty-percent chance of being measured above it, twenty are expected to cross. A second cell with fifty planets and a ten-percent reverse probability sends five back. Observed counts become eighty-five and sixty-five, conserving the total of one hundred fifty.

Write those transition probabilities as a matrix whose columns sum to one. Changing measurement precision changes the matrix even when the physical population is fixed. A low valley count should therefore be compared after applying the same measurement process to a model.

(nobs,1nobs,2)=(0.80.10.20.9)(10050)=(8565)\begin{pmatrix}n_{\rm obs,1}\\n_{\rm obs,2}\end{pmatrix}=\begin{pmatrix}0.8&0.1\\0.2&0.9\end{pmatrix}\begin{pmatrix}100\\50\end{pmatrix}=\begin{pmatrix}85\\65\end{pmatrix}
This is an independently chosen synthetic teaching example.

Reading: Shallower radius valley around low-mass hosts

Count planets and planetary systems separately

Now open Zhu et al. Equation 3. If fkf_k is the fraction of searched stars with kk planets in the defined population, summing fkf_k gives the host fraction. Summing kfkkf_k gives planets per star. Their ratio is the mean multiplicity among planetary systems.

Figures 7–9 infer architecture using transiting multiplicities and transit-timing-variation information. Multiple planets can share a nearly aligned plane, so missed companions and single observed transits depend on the inclination model. Treat the paper’s population and architecture assumptions as part of the reported host fraction.

In a new study, label which of these quantities an axis or headline reports. A change in the radius distribution need not imply a proportional change in the fraction of stars with planets.

Fhost=∑k≥1fk,nˉp=∑k≥1kfkF_{\rm host}=\sum_{k\ge1}f_k,\qquad \bar n_p=\sum_{k\ge1}k f_k
A host contributes once to the first sum and once per planet to the second. Both refer to the same declared stellar and planet population.

Reading: About 30 percent of Sun-like Stars Have Kepler-like Planetary Systems

Choose the next measurement from the remaining alternatives

A useful paper-reading note ends with the measurement that could separate its surviving physical explanations. A radius tells you the extent of a planet; adding a mass helps distinguish bulk compositions and envelope fractions. An age or a host-radiation history asks a different question about evolution. Precision in one quantity does not automatically provide the others.

Keep three columns in that note: measured sample, predicted population after selection and errors, and the physical assumptions linking the two. Mark a paper’s model curve as a prediction and a fitted descriptive curve as a fit. Compare only the quantities that passed through compatible selection and measurement rules.

The companion synthetic experiment starts from a known smooth population or a known two-peaked one. Raising radius scatter blurs the measured minimum; changing detector noise changes which planets enter the catalog. These controlled comparisons teach the reading steps. The real ten-to-thirty-day, two-to-four-radius exercise addresses its own bounded occurrence region.

Reading: The California-Kepler Survey III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets · Shallower radius valley around low-mass hosts · About 30 percent of Sun-like Stars Have Kepler-like Planetary Systems

Exercises and explanations

  1. Why can a relative-density histogram with its peak set to one not directly supply planets per searched star?

    Read the explanation

    The normalization removes the absolute scale. An occurrence calculation also needs the full searched-star sample and selection exposure. A shape comparison can remain useful after that absolute information has been removed.

  2. A model has an empty true valley, yet the observed sample has planets in it. What must be calculated before concluding that the physical model fails?

    Read the explanation

    Apply the radius-measurement error distribution and the relevant selection to the model. Nearby planets can scatter into the observed valley. The number that remains unexplained then depends on that specified model and measurement process.

Try the prediction

Change the detector and watch the missing planets

  1. Compare the known smooth population with the true-valley preset before adding more scatter.
  2. Increase the radius scatter and inspect the blue measured histogram.
  3. Explain which changes move measured radii and which changes remove planets from the catalog.

Sources and calculation scope

  1. The California-Kepler Survey III. A Gap in the Radius Distribution of Small Planets

    Version 1703.10375v2, Figure 7, sections II–V and Appendix C: selected CKS population, weighted radius distribution and synthetic checks.

  2. Shallower radius valley around low-mass hosts

    Version 2401.12378v2, Equations 1–6, Figures 4–8 and section 3.3: normalized valley contrast, host dependence and radius-cell migration.

  3. About 30 percent of Sun-like Stars Have Kepler-like Planetary Systems

    Version 1802.09526v2, section III.1, Equations 1–4, sections III.4–III.5 and Figures 7–9: planets per star, host fraction and system architecture.

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