Three arrows are not three particles
Typical misconceptionA neutrino splits into three classical particles that travel independently.
Better mental modelThe arrows are coherent amplitudes of one quantum state, drawn in a chosen phase convention. Moving the distance preview does not measure the same travelling neutrino again and again.
Flavor probability is not detection efficiency
Typical misconceptionAt the chosen energy, a real detector would see every tau-flavor outcome the model predicts.
Better mental modelThe sampler is an ideal measurement that treats every flavor equally. Identifying a flavor in a real detector depends on interaction thresholds, cross sections, backgrounds and instrument response, and the model leaves all of these out.